Dashboard update: oil rally

Dashboard PDF file:

Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States (April 23, 2016 — PDF)

Dashboard update summary:

Oil prices continue to play a dominant role in other markets’ movements. As mentioned in previous updates, corporate earnings expectations are depressed, so even dismal performance (GS Q1 earnings fell 60% for example) can lead individual stocks higher. However, recovery in energy and commodity markets pushes investors from uncertainty-safe investments into riskier pools. This past week was relatively quiet on the macroeconomic data side, and market volatility was low, however, next week offers both Q1 GDP first estimates and an FOMC meeting, and volatility may tick back up.

While Doha talks set expectations for a fall in oil prices, markets actually pushed prices up by 8.4% during the past week (as measured by front-month contracts of WTI crude). Analysts expected further downward pressure from labor strikes in Kuwait, however, prices continued to climb, suggesting we may be on the other side of the bottom. WTI closed at $43.73 on Friday (see below).

oil_apr232016

Yields on U.S. treasuries of various durations climbed during the week. Two-year treasury bond yields were up to 0.84 percent, more than 13 percent above their previous week level. Ten-year treasury yields climbed more than seven period during the week. Corporate bond yields fell during the week, from the AAA level to the junk-bond level.

Equities were mixed on the week, with the Nasdaq down six-tenths of a percent following disappointing earnings at Google, and the Dow and S&P 500 up a hair more than half a percentage point, each.

twoten_apr232016

Exchange rates also continue to fluctuate from week-to-week. The pound sterling appreciated by more than a percent against the dollar, the Canadian dollar by more than two percent, and the Rand by more than 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, the Yen depreciated by more than 1.3 percent against the dollar during the one-week period. The Euro-dollar spot rate was unchanged on the week.

fx_apr232016

 

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